The 20'th INFORMS Applied Probability Society Conference took place at the Brisbane Convention Centre, Brisbane Australia, July 3-5, 2019. Commencing with the satellite workshop on July 2, organized by CARM dealing with concrete applications (Applied^2 Probability)  at the Global Change Institute (20), Rooms 273 and 275, The University of Queensland, Brisbane. Registration: $100 and $45 students

Work presented at the workshop can be considered for publication in the journal Stochastic Systems upon author request.   

Workshop Theme:  “Uncertainty Quantification Applications”.

Raison D’être:  One of the unsolved mysteries of mathematical sciences is that branches which have their roots in applications and natural phenomena, over time, become progressively more theoretical.  For instance, typically, there are very few numbers in papers nowadays published in Number Theory journals.  It is not surprising that Applied Probability is also susceptible to this theorization trend which, arguably, merely points to the maturity and success of the subject.     

However, in recognition of the above, there is an emerging need for a forum where researchers encountering applied probability problems in the context of specific applications can discuss their experiences and challenges.   A fascinating aspect of modelling random phenomena in applications is that different groups of end users may have very different attitudes towards uncertainty and risk.   For instance, medical practitioners, fishermen and fire fighters all deal with stochasticity on regular basis but have very different needs and expectations of the quantitative tools designed to assist them. 

Welcome to Country and Workshop Opening 8:30am - 8:45am by Professor Jenny Seddon, Associate Dean Research & Deputy Executive Dean, Faculty of Science, The University of Queensland.

Practical Applied Probability Presentations

Health and Epidemics Models 1

Mark Fackrell: Analysing and Modelling Donor Flow in an Australian Red Cross Blood Service Donation Centre

Laura Boyle: Validation of the Coxian phase-type distribution approach to clustering in healthcare applications

Shaowen Qin: Evidence based decision support - testing the effectiveness of patient flow decongestion solutions in a virtual hospital

Health and Epidemics Models 2

Robert Cope: Identifying the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset in a novel pathogen

Peter Taylor: How do we choose the rates in an Accumulating Priority Queue?

Belinda Spratt: Reducing post-surgery recovery occupancy

Energy Modelling and Forecasting

Phillip Wild: An assessment of options and implications for achieving State based 50% Variable Renewable Penetration in the NEM

Lui Cirocco: Energy cost minimisation at a university campus fitted with thermal storage, a case study 

John Boland: Probabilistic forecasting of solar farm output

Adrian Grantham:  Generating synthetic sequences of global horizontal irradiation 

Sustainable Fisheries 

Wen-Hsi Yang: Spatially and environmentally based quantitative assessment of the Queensland Saucer Scallop Fishery

Trevor Hutton: Northern Prawn Fishery: Common Banana Prawn fishery dynamics – the probability of getting it right

George Leigh: How do we know whether a fishery is sustainable when the main action took place before records began?

Jerzy Filar: Uncertainties in an age-structured population model for Barramundi

Ecology and Conservation

Matthew Adams: Maximising the benefit of ecological data using Bayesian inference for ODEs

Katie Lee: Where's the beef? Optimising for biodiversity in a global livestock model

Ali Chauvenet: Cultivating informed management: deciding between ex situ and in situ conservation for threatened plants

Christopher Baker: Optimising invasive species removal rates in highly uncertain systems

Decision Making Under Uncertainty 

Shane Henderson: Under the hood of bike sharing

Matt Holden: Predicting the outcomes and cost-efficacy of anti-poaching interventions under extreme uncertainty

Kate Helmstedt: Impacts of management hierarchies when making environmental decisions

Kerrie Mengersen: Which way should I cycle? A case study in Bayesian modelling for decision-making under uncertainty study

Stochastic Operations Research

Floske Spieksma: Area allocation for Picnic delivery

Michael McCourt: Practical Aspects of Sample Efficient Optimization/Search using Probabilistic Models

Dmitry Krass: Pricing, Location and Capacity Planning of Service Facilities under Congestion

Konstantin Avrachenkov: Distributed optimization of caching devices with geographic constraints

Mathematical Biology 

Sophie Hautphenne: Parameter estimation of branching processes with applications to the endangered black robin population

Andrew Black: Stochastic models of evolution by ecological scaffolding

Dietmar Oelz: Tug-of-war between molecular motors

Brenda Vo: Statistical inference for agent based models in cell biology

Networks, Queues and Control

Rik Timmerman: Platoon Forming Algorithms for Intelligent Street Intersections

Stella Kapodistria: Integrated learning and decision making

Daniel Silva: Last-mile on-demand public transportation service

Ivo Adan: Online batching in high throughput poultry processing lines

Simulation and Computation Tools

Anna Foeglein: Modern paradigms, techniques and tools in Discrete Event Simulation

Matthew Roughan: Who is the mightiest Avenger?

Yoni Nazarathy: Simulation with the Julia language


Organizing Committee

Ivo AdanKonstanin AvrachenkovJohn Boland, Mark FackrellJerzy FilarDavid GoldbergMatthew HoldenRoxanne JemisonRoss McVinishJoshua Ross.

For further details visit INFORMS-APS 2019.

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Global Change Institute (20), The University of Queensland
273 and 275