Use of mathematical modelling to support sustainable marine ecosystems and industries

Speaker: Dr Eva Plaganyi-Lloyd
Affiliation: CSIRO

Abstract

Mathematical and statistical models are needed to support biological, economic and social sustainability of marine ecosystems and dependent users. This talk provides examples of a range of modelling tools being used in Australia: from stock assessment, ecosystem models to management strategy evaluation (MSE). The examples presented have all been developed in close consultation with stakeholders. First, I present examples of quantitative methods being used to reduce the risks of overfishing commercially valuable lobsters and prawns, including accounting for additional risks due to extreme weather events. To support decision-making related to alternative strategies for managing water resources effectively for both agriculture and marine production and biodiversity conservation, the trade-offs associated with proposed water resource development need to be quantified and made transparent. Here I describe use of a spatial, multispecies MICE (Models of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem assessments) that focuses on the key ecosystem components to quantify potential impacts on the broader ecosystem and fishery stakeholders. No single quantitative method is optimal under all situations and hence this talk focuses on an overview of contemporary approaches being applied to manage natural systems and support industries and livelihoods.

Biography

Dr Éva Plagányi is a senior principal research scientist at CSIRO, based in Brisbane. She has a dual biological and mathematical background, having earned a PhD in Applied Mathematics at the University of Cape Town in 2004, and she relocated to CSIRO in 2009. She is responsible for methods to reliably and effectively manage marine natural resources, advance ecosystem modelling approaches as well as leading research on climate impacts and adaptation. She has published over 120 papers and her research has contributed to the management of marine resources, from krill to whales, and has been applied inter-alia in Australia, South Africa, U.S.A. and Antarctica.