Uncertainty and the management of outbreaks: harnessing the power of multiple models

Speaker: Professor Katriona Shea
Affiliation: The Pennsylvania State University (USA)

Abstract

During outbreaks of weeds, pests and infectious diseases, uncertainty hinders our ability to predict dynamics, and to make critical decisions about management.  In particular, disparate epidemiological projections from different modeling groups, arising from different scientific descriptions of the underlying biological and management processes, may hamper intervention planning and response by policy makers.  Drawing on methods from expert elicitation and judgment, we can harness the expertise of multiple modeling groups in a structured decision theoretic framework.  I will discuss pandemic and ongoing use of these methods by the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, including Value of Information scenario designs that can help to inform management decisions, and ensemble aggregation and evaluation methods.

Biography

Professor Katriona holds an endowed chair at The Pennsylvania State University. She is a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the Ecological Society of America and is the co-founder and co-director of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub in the USA. The Scenario Modeling Hub’s model projections were used to guide the expansion of the primary COVID-19 vaccine schedule to US school-age children in 2021, and booster recommendations in 2022 and 2023 and professor Shea’s current work is continuing to inform national and international epidemic management.